• Erdogan’s fate is threatened by Turkey’s economy

    From: The Economist IE    Update time: Oct-16-2022 21:29:pm

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Also: The next chapter in a story of bank instability Read in browser March 26th 2023 The Economist today A Sunday edition of our daily newsletter Hello from London, Some characters, in part because they have been around for so long, seem to loom extra large in international politics. One of those whom I’ll be watching closely in the coming weeks is Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. After a couple of decades at, or near, the top of Turkish politics, might his days in office be numbered? He presides over and mismanages an economy that looks ever more troubled—battered by inflation, deficits and a volatile currency. Voters are deeply unhappy with the way his government has responded to the earthquakes in February that killed at least 50,000 people. Rebuilding is likely to cost more than $100bn. Elections, meanwhile, are looming in May. The opposition parties, once fractured, are closing ranks around a unity candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is ahead (just) in the polls. What Mr Erdogan does in the six weeks or so before voting day will be decisive. Have a read of our analysis of what is at stake, and not only for Turks. Mr Erdogan recently gave the nod to Finland’s NATO application, which matters for how the West handles Russia, but he is still holding out on Sweden. Elsewhere we will be watching for another chapter in the rolling story of bank instability that has gripped everyone in recent weeks. Deutsche Bank is the latest to come under scrutiny, following the woes at Credit Suisse earlier in the month. Investors were running from the German bank at the end of last week. As we all wait to see what the new week will bring, have a read of our take on why they were fleeing.  Let me also recommend two new articles in our “Economist reads” series. One is on the books to turn to for understanding financial catastrophe. The books on the last financial crisis, after all, should contain useful guidance for coping with the current one. And if politics is more your thing, then try our guide to the books that best explain Florida. The sunshine state is getting ever more influential. Meanwhile, could Donald Trump be indicted and perhaps arrested in the next few days? He railed at a rally in Waco, Texas, at the weekend, saying “radical left maniacs” in government were somehow leading the efforts to prosecute him (while also promising that the presidential election next year would be the “final battle” for victory). His various legal troubles are mounting. The row over his apparent payment to, and affair with, Stormy Daniels seems fairly trivial to me. Personally I’m more troubled by his behaviour as president, in 2020, in trying to hold on to office.  Finally, for a change of pace, here are a couple of stories that fascinated me. In one, we mark 60 years since Britain reshaped its railways, a radical and disruptive process known as the Beeching cuts (or the “Beeching Axe”), in which a civil servant ordered the closure of many stations and much track. The country is still paying the price.  And in the other, more forward-looking story my colleagues weigh up where the big tech companies are investing as they compete to get ahead in Artificial Intelligence. Who knows, if Beeching had had the benefit of AI six decades ago, he might have avoided some of his blunders. Thanks, as ever, for all your thoughtful feedback. Greg Eva, in France, was not amused by my comments on reforms to the retirement age there. He rightly points out that popular frustration (which could grow this week) is in part because Emmanuel Macron’s governments have used Article 49.3, to pass a law without parliament’s agreement, eleven times so far. That, he observes, “seems very Trumpian to me”. Fair point Greg, though Mr Macron was elected on a promise to raise the retirement age. Sebastian Agudelo-Restrepo, meanwhile, laments the retirement of our Bello columnist and calls for us to write more from Latin America. I promise we will continue to cover the region with great care and interest, Sebastian. Lastly Tony Sloane suggests that, as our A-Z of economics leads to a proliferation of others, we “cut out the middleman” and create a guide to them all: an “A-Z of A-Zs”. Tony, you’ll be the first to hear when we launch it. Please continue to write to me at [email protected]. Let me know your views on prosecuting Mr Trump. No one should be above the law, including him. But is it edifying to see prosecutors going after a former president who is again running for office? And you’re most welcome to follow me on Twitter. Adam Roberts Digital editor Recommended reads Election economics Ahead of a critical election Turkey’s economy is running on borrowed time With the lira down 80%, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s medicine isn’t working Mastering the machine Big tech and the pursuit of AI dominance The tech giants are going all in on artificial intelligence. Each is doing it its own way Courting controversy Why winning a Wisconsin Supreme Court race matters so much In a gridlocked, gerrymandered state, it is the Democrats’ best hope for change Hunger in the Horn Drought killed 43,000 people in Somalia last year Weather, jihadists and the Ukraine war all share some of the blame The Economist reads: Florida What to read about the Sunshine State Six books that help put Florida’s surge in context Don’t unleash the zombies How much longer will America’s regional banks hold up? Despite the danger, policymakers must not intervene prematurely The great train robbery Britain is still marked by the mistakes of the Beeching Report 60 years have passed since the railways were reshaped Also from The Economist Subscriber only Stay informed with our weekly China newsletter Drum Tower will help you understand the challenges facing the country and the ruling Communist Party. Sign up today. A message from Economist Impact Commercialising Quantum Global Debate how organisations should prepare for the quantum era and discuss the actions to take today. The agenda will cover the promise, the peril, the applications and the limitations of quantum technologies. Register Learn about Economist Impact We’d like to hear from you   Share your feedback via the email address below. Email [email protected]   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. This email has been sent to: couponkirk. If you'd like to update your details please click here. 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